书籍介绍
这本书最耐人寻味的地方，或许不在它教人如何规避风险，而在于它反复提醒：风险从来不是命运，而是选择。作者借'风险'一词源自意大利语' dare（敢于）'，点出风险的本质与我们拥有多少选择的自由息息相关。书中大量真实案例显示，人在不确定性面前常常表现出非理性、逻辑矛盾与优柔寡断——而这正是人性弱点，也是人类不断与命运抗争、摸索管理之道的原因。它不是一本提供投资口诀的操作手册，而是一部风险观念的演进史：从古希腊到现代金融，人们如何学会用概率与决策替代束手无策。适合那些愿意追问'我们究竟为何冒险'的读者，也适合能沉下心梳理历史脉络、不指望速成答案的人。
AI导读
核心看点
- 梳理人类探索风险与概率的艰难历程
- 揭示风险是选择而非命运，可被管理
- 融合数学、金融史与人性博弈的趣闻
读者共识
- 经典之作，但翻译水平广受诟病
- 故事生动有趣，但理论深度略显不足
- 适合泛读了解背景，难有颠覆性冲击
精彩摘录
- "亚当.斯密（Adam Smith）... 把这种动机定义为：“大多数人对自己的能力和自己会有好运的愚蠢假设的过分自负。“尽管斯密敏锐地意识到人类喜欢承受风险的倾向有利于促进经济的发展，他仍然担心当这种倾向性失去控制时会对社会产生不利的影响。所以他将人的道德情感与市场的好处仔细地进行权衡。 160年以后，另外一个伟大的英国经济学家约翰.梅纳德.凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes)也同意这种观点：当一个国家的资本发展成为赌场的副产品时，人们的工作可能不会很好的进行。"
- "Order is impossible to find unless disorder is there first."
- "Although Markowitz never mentions game theory, there is a close resemblance between diversification and von Neumann's games of strategy. In this case, one player is the investor and the other player is the stock market-a powerful opponent indeed and secretive about its intentions. Playing to win aga"
- "The word "risk" derives from the early Italian risicare, whjicjh means "to dare." In this sense, risk is a choice rather than a fate. The actions we dare to take, which depend on how free we are to make choices, are what the story of risk is all about. And that story helps define what it means to be"
- "Yet once we act, we forfeit the option of waiting until new information comes along. As a result, not-acting has value. The more uncertain the outcome, the greater may be the value of procrastination. Hamlet is wrong: he who hesitates is halfway home."
- "He postulates a game that ends at an infinite distance in time. At that moment, a coin is tossed. Which way would you bet--heads (God is) or tails (God is not)?"
- "Pascal explained that belief in God is not a decision. You cannot awaken one morning and declare, "Today I think I will decide to believe in God." You believe or you do not believe. The decision, therefore, is whether to choose to act in a manner that will lead to believing in God, like living with "
- "Venturesome people place high utility on the small probability of huge gains and low utility on the larger probability of loss. Other place little utility on the probability of gain because their paramount goal is to preserve their capital."
用户评论
废话连篇，敢不敢直接说你想要说的问题和答案。也许是我知道我要的是独立思考的人的作品让我能快速的选择。
“当人们面临不确定性同时又必须要做决定的时候，总是不断表现出非理性的行为、逻辑不一致和优柔寡断，这大概是人性弱点所在，也是我们不断与上帝抗争、探索风险管理之途的意义所在。”——彼得·L·伯恩斯坦
风险缘于对身外事物的不了解和人类自身的自大。
貌似全书没展开....讲的有些散。可以考虑当小说看
综述类书，四平八稳，不要指望能有什么冲击。
its never easy for anyone
翻译得实在是太差了
只读了英文原版introduction和最后一章，中间是1200~1960年期间risk management的案例和反思
内容很一般，主要是说概率和风险的发展史，对实操意义很小
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