Big Debt Crises

Ray Dalio

出版社

Bridgewater

出版时间

2018-10-15

ISBN

9781732689800

评分

★★★★★

标签

经济

书籍介绍

"Ray Dalio's excellent study provides an innovative way of thinking about debt crises and the policy response." - Ben Bernanke

"Ray Dalio's book is must reading for anyone who aspires to prevent or manage through the next financial crisis." - Larry Summers

"A terrific piece of work from one of the world's top investors who has devoted his life to understanding markets and demonstrated that understanding by navigating the 2008 financial crisis well." - Hank Paulson

"An outstanding history of financial crises, including the devastating crisis of 2008, with a very valuable framework for understanding why the engine of the financial system occasionally breaks down, and what types of policy actions by central banks and governments are necessary to resolve systemic financial crises. This should serve as a play book for future policy makers, with practical guidance about what to do and what not to do." - Tim Geithner

On the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world's most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.

As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future.

The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930's Great Depression, and the 1920's inflationary depression of Germany's Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you're an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.

AI导读
核心看点
  • 提炼债务危机通用模板,解析长短期债务周期。
  • 区分通缩型与通胀型危机,详解去杠杆四手段。
  • 结合魏玛、大萧条及2008年案例,全景复盘历史。
适合谁读
  • 金融从业者及投资者,需掌握宏观周期规律。
  • 对经济史感兴趣者,欲深入理解危机演变逻辑。
  • 政策制定者,寻求应对系统性金融风险的工具。
读前提醒
  • 内容专业且篇幅较长,建议重点阅读第一部分理论。
  • 术语较多,非科班读者需耐心查阅,做好啃硬骨头准备。
  • 可结合《原则》对照阅读,以理解达利欧的底层思维。
读者共识
  • 理论框架清晰实用,将复杂危机简化为可操作模型。
  • 案例研究详实震撼,如亲历历史般感受危机冲击。
  • 部分章节略显冗长,但核心精华对认知提升极大。

本导读基于书籍简介、目录、原文摘录、短评和书评生成,不等同于全文精读。

精彩摘录
  • "In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to"
  • "决策者通过在以下情形中采用宏观审慎工具。 当调息逐步丧失其作为货币政策工具的效力时。 经济体需要加大刺激力度,但在零利率情况下,货币政策进一步宽松的空间有限。 整体经济不需要紧缩,但某个或某些领域需要紧缩。此时不宜上调利率,因为这会妨碍整体经济增长。 当决策者需要将信贷从出现泡沫的资产/贷款领域引向信贷紧缩的领域,需要同时采用不同的政策组合时。 以下措施旨在调节信贷需求: 改变所需的贷款与价值比率; 改变所需的偿债总额与收入比率; 改变贷款期限; 改变购买金融资产的保证金要求; 通过利率补贴、税收政策或其他法规,改变贷款成本。 以下措施旨在调节信贷供应: 改变特定类型贷款的资本或准备金要求; "
  • "This case exemplifies the very common problem of politics creating government guarantees (implicit or explicit) that make risky assets appear to be safer than they are. This encourages investors to lever up in them, which feeds bad debt growth."
  • "我的经验和研究告诉我,相比信贷/债务増长过快,其增长过慢导致的经济问题同样严重,甚至会更糟糕,因为信货债务增长过慢的代价就是会错失发展机会。 总的来说,由于信货同时创造了购买力和债务,因此增加信贷是好是坏取决于能否把借款用于生产性目的,从而创造出足够多的收入来还本付息。如果能够实现这一点,资源就得到了良好的配置,债权人和债务人都能从中获利。否则,双方都不满意,资源配置很可能就不甚理想。"
  • "大量举债的风险主要在于決策者是否有意愿和能力将坏账损失分摊到多年。在我经历和研究的所有案例中,我都看到了这种情况。决策者能不能做到这一点,取決于两个因素:(1)债务是否以决策者能够控制的货币计价;(2)决策者能否对债权人和债务人施加影响。"
  • "案例研究表明,债务危机最大的风险不是来自债务本身,而是来自以下因素:(1)决策者缺乏知识,或缺乏权威,难以做出正确的决策;(2)整顿债务问题带来了一些政治后果,在惠及一些人的同时,损害了另一些人的利益。我出版本书,正是为了降低这些因素的风险。 话虽如此,我需要重申的是:(1)当债务以外币而非本币计价时,一国决策者分散债务问题的难度将大大増加;(2)虽然债务危机可以得到妥善管理,但一定会有人为此付出惨痛的代价。"
  • "决策者可以采取以下4种政策措施,以降低债务与收入之间的比率和偿债总额与用于偿债的现金流之间的比率。 (1)财政紧缩(即减少支出); (2)债务违约/重组; (3)央行印钞,购买资产(或提供担保) (4)将资金和信贷从充足的领域转向不足的领域。 以上每类措施对经济都有不同的影响。一些措施具有通胀性,会刺激经济增长(例如,央行印钞),而另一些措施具有通缩性,有利于减轻债务负担(例如,财政紧缩、债务违约)。和谐的去杠杆化(降低债务与收入比率,同时保持适当的经济增长率和通胀率,下文将解释)关键在于均衡使用这些措施。"
  • "为了能在重大债务危机发生前识别危机,我研究了所有主要市场,分析市场中是否存在泡沫,我还研究了泡沫破裂会冲击的领域。本书省略了详细的研究过程,但泡沫最明确的特征可以总结如下。 (1)相对于传统标准来看,资产价格偏高 (2)市场预期目前的高价会继续快速上升。 (3)普遍存在看涨情绪。 (4)利用高杠杆融资买进资产。 (5)买家提前很长时间买入(例如加库存、签订供应合同等),旨在投机或应对未来价格上涨的影响。 (6)新买家(之前未参与市场者)进入市场。 (7)刺激性货币政策进一步助长泡沫(而紧缩性货币政策会导致泡沫破裂)。 如下表所示,根据我们的系统测量,过去的泡沫包含大多数或全部上述特征。(NA表"
作者简介
Ray Dalio is the founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates. Bridgewater is a global asset manager and leader in institutional portfolio management as well as the largest hedge fund in the world. Under Ray s guidance, Bridgewater has developed a distinctive culture, an idea-meritocracy that produces meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truth and radical transparency that is the foundation of the firm s success. Since starting Bridgewater out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York in 1975, Ray has grown the firm into the largest hedge fund in the world, the 5th most important company in the U.S. according to Fortune Magazine, and has led it to make more money for clients than any other hedge fund since its inception, according to LCH Investments. For his innovative work as well as being a valued advisor to many global policy makers, Ray has also been called the Steve Jobs of Investing by CIO Magazine and Wired Magazine, and been named one of TIME Magazine s 100 Most Influential People. Over the past three decades, he wrote down his decision-making criteria and has recently passed along his principles and tools through his book, Principles: Life & Work, a New York Times #1 Bestseller and Amazon #1 Business Book of 2017.
目录
Acknowledgement
Introduction 7
Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle 9
How I Think about Credit and Debt 9
The Template for the Archetypal Long-Term/Big Debt Cycle 13

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用户评论
后面的广告有点出戏……
魏玛共和国和29年大萧条的例子非常清晰。学了这么多年二战史,竟然是看了dalio的书之后才终于明白了一直不明白的事。算是一个意外的收获。在理论方面,dalio的模型其实没有什么特殊的。只是更量化统一的说明了,在危机时放水时必须的,货币贬值是必须的。其他的道德和政治争议,比如放水是不是便宜了黑心资本家,比如说是不是要给政府或银行一个教训,这些争论都要往后放。因为在当下,这些因素都只会让经济每况愈下,无法回复。但他整理的历史也侧面说明了,在真实世界里,做“正确的放水决定”是很困难的,政策执行人常常会反复,所以一旦进入危机周期,每一次不彻底的政策带来的部分反弹,都难掩整体的下行趋势。
关于宏观经济和货币政策。逻辑清晰,信息量很大,值得再读
干货满满。deflationary/inflationary debt crises的两个框架搭得很好,三个具体例子(德国1918,美国1928,美国2007)是对框架详尽的运用,分析详细,包括从宏观、政策制定者、和普罗大众的各个角度进行,比较全面。扫过后面48个例子概况。
这是一本全景纪实书,反映了桥水对债务危机的研究。虽然是一家之言,但是可以拿来跟《大而不倒》交叉看。第一部分的理论和第二部分的案例教学是精华,Ray保持了足够的中立性。
只有第一章细细看过,后面第二章和第三章的例子就没怎么细看了。结合刚刚看过的《第二次启蒙》还挺有贯通感:总的来说,大概所有的cycles都是因人类自己的短视而导致的,而人的短视基本上还是因为人类的短命(想象一下,如果我能活一千年,那我对于用未来二十年的痛苦来换取未来两百年的幸福会怎么想)。在这个基础上,所有的机制都有自己的矛盾和缺陷。而在一种无奈的囚徒困境下,个人只能看自己这短暂的一生恰好是在一个cycle的上升繁荣期还是下降衰退期,而能够靠自己能力改变的真的不多。
佐证了cash is trash
个人觉得case study部分比较有趣。前面的理论铺垫可以看作者更近期写的MMT和MP3的小短文。
这本书拖拖拉拉看了有一年。可能看这么久的原因也是写的比较难懂。我觉得还是有点拖沓的,不过好处可能是帮助我形成了对债务的敏感性,和对于现今通货膨胀等等的关注,不关注大局势,我等小民只有被收割的命运。
虽然英文原版没坚持读完
Bridgewater的其他书籍查看全部

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