The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers - Paul M. Kennedy

The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers

Paul M. Kennedy

出版社

Vintage

出版时间

1989-01-15

ISBN

9780679720195

评分

★★★★★
书籍介绍

The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict From 1500 to 2000, by Paul Kennedy, first published in 1987, explores the politics and economics of the Great Powers from 1500 to 1980 and the reason for their decline. It then continues by forecasting the positions of China, Japan, the European Economic Community (EEC), the Soviet Union and the United States through the end of the 20th century

AI导读
核心看点
  • 揭示大国兴衰的经济与军事互动规律
  • 分析五百年间全球权力重心的转移历程
  • 警示过度扩张导致国力衰退的历史教训
适合谁读
  • 国际关系与政治学专业的学生学者
  • 关注大国战略与地缘政治的读者
  • 对世界历史宏观演变感兴趣的人
读前提醒
  • 需结合历史背景理解经济军事数据
  • 注意书中预测基于上世纪八十年代视角
  • 建议配合相关历史地图辅助阅读理解
读者共识
  • 经典著作,深刻揭示经济是国力基础
  • 部分预测因时代变迁已显过时或偏差
  • 理论框架宏大,但部分论述略显枯燥

本导读基于书籍简介、目录、原文摘录、短评和书评生成,不等同于全文精读。

精彩摘录
  • "中国倒退的一个重要原因完全是儒家官吏的保守思想作祟,这种保守思想到了明代因对蒙古人过去强加给他们的变化的憎恨而愈益严重。在这种“复旧”的气氛中,整个上层官吏关心的是维持和恢复旧秩序,而不是在向海外扩张和进行海外贸易的基础上创造更加灿烂的未来。"
  • "一流国家在世界事务中的相对地位总是在不断变化,主要原因有二:一是各国国力的增长速度不同;二是技术突破和组织形式的变革,可使一国比另一国得到更大的优势。例如,公元1500年以后问世的载炮帆船和大西洋贸易的繁荣,就使欧洲各国受益不同,一些国家的发展速度比另一些国家快得多。同样,后来开发的蒸汽动力及其依赖的煤炭和金属资源,大大增强了一些国家的力量。这些国家的生产力一旦得到提高,便自然能比较容易地在平时承受大规模扩军备战所带来的负担,能在战时保持和供养庞大的陆军和海军。这种说法听起来似乎具有浓厚的重商主义色彩,但财富通常是支撑军事力量的基础,而要获取和保卫财富,又总是需要军事力量。"
  • "然而,如果一个国家没有把它的大部分资源用于创造财富,而是用于军事目的,从长远来看,这很可能会导致该国国力的减弱。同样,如果一个国家在战略上过分扩张(如侵占大片领土和进行代价高昂的战争),它就要冒一种风险:对外扩张得到的潜在好处,很可能被为它付出的巨大代价所抵消。如果这个国家正处于相对经济衰退时期,这种困境将变得更加严重。自16世纪西欧进步以来,西班牙、荷兰、法国、英国和目前的美国等一流强国的兴衰史表明,从长期看,在国家的生产力和取得收入的能力,与军事力量之间有一种非常重要的相互依存关系。"
  • "大国兴起,起于经济和科技发达,以及随之而来的军事强盛和对外征战扩张」大国之衰,表于国际生产カ重心转移,过度侵略扩张并造成经济和科技相对衰退落后。"
  • ">我们都为日常的繁事而分心过多,因为我们从来没有机会对全面的形势进行调查,并制定出相应的政策,但是我们又不得 不经受着一个有一个焦虑的折磨"
  • "军事安全的需要攫取了过多的国家财富,“过度扩张”将不可避免地使它衰落,这速度可能比苏联还要快。"
  • "保罗肯尼迪分析的基础是,如果在一个相当长的时间范围内,优势总是属于那些更强的物质创造能力的国家,而技术上的突破与组织形式上的变革是物质创造的基础"
  • "判断一本书杰出与否的标志,出去它的思想深度、表达能力、想象里,显然还有一条不可忽视的——它是否具有里程碑意义。 经济增长与13亿的市场是新一代中国人主要的信心来源,这种信心既容易使人膨胀,也经常脆弱不堪,因为它与个人最严并非紧密相关"
作者简介
http://www.yale.edu/history/faculty/kennedy.html Paul Kennedy, the J. Richardson Dilworth Professor of History, Director of International Security Studies at Yale, and Distinguished Fellow of the Brady-Johnson Program in Grand Strategy, coordinates the ISS programs funded by the Smith Richardson Foundation. He is internationally known for his writings and commentaries on global political, economic, and strategic issues. Born in June 1945 in the northern English town of Wallsend, Northumberland, he obtained his BA at Newcastle University and his DPhil at the University of Oxford. He is a former Fellow of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Princeton University, and of the Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung, Bonn. He holds many honorary degrees, and is a Fellow of the Royal Historical Society, the American Philosophical Society, and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He was made Commander of the Order of the British Empire (C.B.E.) in 2000 for services to History and elected a Fellow of the British Academy in June 2003. He is on the editorial board of numerous scholarly journals and writes for The New York Times, The Atlantic, and many foreign-language newspapers and magazines. His monthly column on current global issues is distributed worldwide by the Los Angeles Times Syndicate/Tribune Media Services. He is the author or editor of nineteen books, including The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism, The War Plans of the Great Powers, The Realities Behind Diplomacy, and Preparing for the Twenty-First Century. His best-known work is The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (Random House), which provoked an intense debate on its publication in 1988 and has been translated into over twenty languages. In 1991, he edited a collection entitled Grand Strategies in War and Peace. He helped draft the Ford Foundation-sponsored report issued in 1995, The United Nations in Its Second Half-Century, which was prepared for the fiftieth anniversary of the UN. His latest book, The Parliament of Man: The Past, Present and Future of the United Nations, was published in 2006 by Random House. Prof. Kennedy has finished a book on operational history of the Second World War and is beginning a study of Rudyard Kipling.
目录
Strategy and Economics in the Preindustrial World
The Rise of the Western World
The Habsburg Bid for Mastery, 1519–1659
Finance, Geography, and the Winning of Wars, 1660–1815
Strategy and Economics in the Industrial Era

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用户评论
6%
@2018-06-02 17:27:15
Every great power will fall, absolutely and relatively.
简单的英文,经典的大历史叙述。值得反复阅读的经典。
很综合很comprehensive的对大国的评价,Kennedy有时候会很难懂。
成了历史的PhD之后真的对这种说白了还是Eurocentrism的world history毫无感觉,甚至觉得很无聊。说白了就是那一套:其他任何地方都成为不了西欧和北美,因为它们总是缺了点啥。但是西欧和北美是注定的要成为西欧和北美。Where is the room for historical contingency?其实历史乱得跟八宝粥一样,哪有这么多线性的逻辑。。
重新读了其中的三章有点失望 这本自己曾经觉得是IR神作的书已经有点off了 不过毕竟是上世纪九十年代写的了…realist那套经济军事还有国家金融体系已经不足以撑起基本理论框架(虽然我还是把矛盾的自己看成一个realist…能思考的点就是现阶段的driving factor跟之前的军事和经济在功能上有无替代功能(本质上是不可能进行完美替换的)预感曾经自己觉得最扯的constructivist即将占领地球
非常经典的书籍,书中对于未来的预测不完全对,但是点出了兴衰的本质:经济实力。遗憾的是太多人把兴衰看成了作战的能力,过多投入在军事上,反而导致了经济的衰落。
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