The Dictator's Handbook

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

出版社

PublicAffairs

出版时间

2011-09-27

ISBN

9781610390446

评分

★★★★★
书籍介绍

In this title, two renowned political scientists make the contrarian, research-based case that - regardless of any other factors political scientists or historians may find relevant - the calculations and actions of rulers are the driving force of all politics, and the primary goal of rulers is to maintain power as long as possible. In this clever and accessible book, Bueno de Mesquita and Smith introduce us to their perspective of the political world. They bare the logic of politics, starting from the simple premise that leaders pursue their own ends, and that populations either have, or more often don't have, the power to constrain them to a significant degree. The book is organized by a series interconnected questions, among them: Why do leaders who wreck their countries keep their jobs for so long? Why do autocracies have dismal economic policies? How are there so many suffering people in resource-rich lands? Why do 'natural disasters' disproportionately strike poor nations? Why do 'evil-doers' so often collect loads of foreign aid? Why are democracies so good at war? In answering these questions, the authors look at politics, the choices of public policies, and even decisions about war and peace as lying outside of conventional thinking about culture and history. They set aside ideas of civic virtue and psychopathology. Such notions simply are not central to understanding what leaders do and why they do it. Instead, Bueno de Mesquita and Smith see politicians as self-interested louts, just the sort of people you wouldn't want to have over for dinner, but without whom you might not have dinner at all. And from this perspective, they are able to answer some perplexing mysteries of politics, shed light on what we read in the newspapers every single day, and offer realistic ways of improving human governance.

About the Author

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is the Julius Silver Professor of Politics and director of the Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy at New York University. He is the author of 16 books, including The Predictioneer’s Game.Alastair Smith is professor of politics at New York University. The recipient of three grants from the National Science Foundation and auth...

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AI导读
核心看点
  • 政治核心是获取并维持权力,而非追求公共利益。
  • 致胜联盟越小越稳固,潜在支持者越多越安全。
  • 统治者通过分配私人利益来换取核心盟友的忠诚。
适合谁读
  • 对政治学底层逻辑和权力运作机制感兴趣的读者。
  • 希望透过现象看本质,理解国际政治与领导行为的读者。
  • 企业管理者及关注组织内部权力博弈的职场人士。
读前提醒
  • 本书模型极简,请放下对道德评判的执念,关注逻辑。
  • 注意区分“名义联盟”与“致胜联盟”这两个核心概念。
  • 部分案例分析可能略显牵强,建议重点阅读理论框架。
读者共识
  • 视角独特犀利,打破了传统政治学的道德叙事框架。
  • 理论模型简洁有力,但被部分读者认为过于简化现实。
  • 作为政治学科普读物极具启发性,适合入门阅读。

本导读基于书籍简介、目录、原文摘录、短评和书评生成,不等同于全文精读。

精彩摘录
  • "首先,政治就是获得和维持政治权力,它与“我们,人民”的普遍幸福无关"
  • "国家不会有利益,人有。"
  • "饥饿的人民不可能有精力推翻你,大可不必担心他们。相反地,失望的致胜联盟成员则会变节,让你深陷麻烦。"
  • "有三种办法可以除掉一名在位者。第一个也是最容易的一个,就是巴望该领导人自己死掉。第二,如果没有这么凑巧的话,挑战者可以开出足够诱人的价码收买在位者的核心联盟成员,使他们转投到挑战者的大计中来。第三,现存的政治体制可以被外部力量压垮,无论是军事上被外国打败,还是革命和叛乱。这种情况下人民会起来造反,摧毁现有制度。"
  • "在一个独裁国家如果你想上台的话,与其想方设法医治国家的弊病,还不如偷到在位者的病历。"
  • "成功的挑战者都遵循基本的原则。他们对现任领导人的关键支持者提出了比当前所得更高的预期回报。但对挑战者来说不利的是,现任领导人有一个重大优势,即当前致胜联盟的成员们可能相信该领导人会继续填满他们的私囊或提供他们想要的公关政策。而一旦现任领导人被人知道病入膏肓、选择错误的政策或关键支持者的忠诚度很弱,那么挑战者登堂入室废黜现任领导人的大门就敞开了"
  • "归根结底,统治本身就是目标,而不是统治得当"
  • "牢固掌权的最佳方式是保持很小的联盟规模,并且至关重要的是,让联盟里的每个人都意识到有大把人可以取代他。这就是为什么我们经常看到专制国家里也搞定期选举。所有人都知道这些选举根本不算数,然而人们还是要随大流。操纵下的选举与挑选领导人无关,也与获取合法性无关。假如一场选举的结果在投票前就一清二楚,这样的选举何来合法性?操纵下的选举是对有能力的政治家们的警告:如果他们不紧跟领袖的步伐,他们是可抛弃的。"
作者简介
About the Author Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is the Julius Silver Professor of Politics and director of the Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy at New York University. He is the author of 16 books, including The Predictioneer’s Game.Alastair Smith is professor of politics at New York University. The recipient of three grants from the National Science Foundation and author of three books, he was chosen as the 2005 Karl Deutsch Award winner, given biennially to the best international relations scholar under the age of 40.
目录
Introduction
Rules to Rule By
Chapter 1 - The Rules of Politics
Three Political Dimensions
Virtues of 3 - D Politics

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用户评论
重点看了看中文版删节部分,再看的话评价没有那么高了,部分观点值得商榷,不过仍然是值得看的好书。
用一种简单模型(interchangeable, influential, essential)去替代另一种简单模型(民主vs独裁),然后生搬硬套。废话太多,车轱辘话来回说,最后我就只看看每章最后的总结。举了不少例子但分析太浅且牵强。最有趣的是,中国和新加坡的成功被作者称为“例外”,然后干脆就不讨论了!
这本书告诉我,如果我实在无法移民到发达国家,我可以考虑移民到一个不那么发达的民主国家,但是动作要快,因为他们发达的速度都惊人,时不我待。还有这场“反复”运动的主要目的是减少制胜联盟的人数,同时所有的其他政策都在指向更为“独菜”的方向,也就是说,如果成功,将是更加暗无天日的世界,而失败几乎只能期待经济崩溃,也绝对是大多数人的损失。另外,美国不需要一个“闽猪”的瓷器,更符合他们利益的是一个听话的独裁政府。
脑洞太大,有点儿牵强。不过有些部分(比如援助问题)听起来挺有道理的。 分好高啊。
获取控制权并保持住,政治的首要目的。抓住少数关键人物的支持并使得这些支持者处于忠诚,需要高超的手段控制实际结盟者的数目,人数小到随时可以替换,大数到可以完全控制。而名义结盟者,越多越好。政治是少数人的游戏,这个游戏的风险和收益巨大,而博弈的结果并不会一定导向经济效率高的均衡或是居民普惠的政策。政治人物首先迎合的便是结盟者,而居民始终是最后一位,尽管名义上是第一位。善治依赖于大的权力联盟,即长官不能通过赢取少数人的支持保持领导位置。
很出色的科普,以及作者真是个一本正经讲怪话的大师……我会给4吧,多的一星是给这些怪话的
前几章还行,后面夹带私货太严重了。第九章拉了Powell/Weinberger/Albright几个活宝来踩孙武,like…it was just golden…现在再回过头看看怕是脸要肿得妈都不认识了。
醍醐灌顶
用似是而非过于简单的模型理解社会是学者的通病。有可看之处,废话太多基本可以跳着看
这可是严肃的政治学读物
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