China's economic growth is sputtering, the Euro is under threat, and the United States is combating serious trade disadvantages. Another Great Depression? Not quite. Noted economist and China expert Michael Pettis argues instead that we are undergoing a critical rebalancing of the world economies. Debunking popular misconceptions, Pettis shows that severe trade imbalances spurred on the recent financial crisis and were the result of unfortunate policies that distorted the savings and consumption patterns of certain nations. Pettis examines the reasons behind these destabilizing policies, and he predicts severe economic dislocations--a lost decade for China, the breaking of the Euro, and a receding of the U.S. dollar--that will have long-lasting effects. Pettis explains how China has maintained massive--but unsustainable--investment growth by artificially lowering the cost of capital. He discusses how Germany is endangering the Euro by favoring its own development at the expense of its neighbors. And he looks at how the U.S. dollar's role as the world's reserve currency burdens America's economy. Although various imbalances may seem unrelated, Pettis shows that all of them--including the U.S. consumption binge, surging debt in Europe, China's investment orgy, Japan's long stagnation, and the commodity boom in Latin America--are closely tied together, and that it will be impossible to resolve any issue without forcing a resolution for all. Demonstrating how economic policies can carry negative repercussions the world over, The Great Rebalancing sheds urgent light on our globally linked economic future.
Michael Pettis is professor of finance and economics at Peking University, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment, and a widely read commentator on China, Europe, and the global economy. He is the author of The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economies and the Threat of Financial Collapse.
- 本书彻底颠覆了关于贸易失衡的传统认知，作者利用会计恒等式证明，一国的贸易顺差必然对应他国的逆差，全球收支永远平衡。所谓‘货币操纵’或‘不公平贸易’往往是表象，实质是各国国内储蓄与消费结构的严重扭曲。作者指出，中国等国的政策强制压低居民收入以补贴投资，导致储蓄率畸高，进而通过资本输出造成全球失衡，这种模式不可持续且极具破坏性。
- 作者深入剖析了中国经济增长模式的内在缺陷，指出其依赖压低劳动力成本、抑制居民消费来维持高储蓄和高投资。这种模式不仅导致国内贫富差距扩大，还使得企业部门债务高企，而居民部门缺乏消费能力。书中强调，真正的经济再平衡必须通过财富转移，即提高居民收入占比、完善社会保障，从而刺激内需，而非依赖出口或无效的基础设施投资。
- 本书预测了全球主要经济体面临的严峻调整后果，包括中国经济增速的长期放缓、欧元区的潜在解体以及美元地位的相对衰退。作者警告，试图通过汇率调整或外部施压来解决失衡是徒劳的，因为失衡根源在于国内政策。任何国家若继续维持扭曲的储蓄消费模式，都将面临资产泡沫破裂或债务危机，唯有接受痛苦的内部结构调整，才能实现真正的经济健康。
- 对宏观经济、国际金融及全球贸易失衡问题有浓厚兴趣的读者。本书提供了不同于主流媒体的独特视角，帮助读者理解为何简单的‘贸易逆差有害论’是错误的，以及为何全球金融危机的根源在于各国国内的经济结构扭曲。适合希望深入理解2008年金融危机深层原因及后续全球经济格局变化的专业人士和学生。
- 关注中国经济转型、政策走向及社会公平问题的读者。书中详细揭示了中国过去几十年经济增长背后的代价，即居民收入被剥夺以支持投资和出口。对于关心中国未来发展方向、社会保障体系完善以及共同富裕政策背景的读者，本书提供了重要的理论框架和历史警示，有助于理性看待经济结构调整中的阵痛。
- 对国际政治经济学、地缘经济冲突及货币战争话题感兴趣的读者。作者驳斥了关于‘中国操纵货币’的常见谬误，展示了全球经济相互依存的真实逻辑。适合希望跳出民族主义叙事，从全球资本流动、储蓄投资平衡角度理解中美贸易摩擦、汇率政策及国际货币体系演变的读者，提升对复杂国际经济议题的分析能力。
- 本书基于严格的会计恒等式（如Y=C+S=I+X-M）进行论证，逻辑严密但可能显得枯燥。读者需摒弃‘贸易顺差即财富、逆差即损失’的直觉偏见，接受‘全球收支必然平衡’的前提。若对宏观经济学基础概念不熟悉，建议先补充相关知识，否则可能难以理解作者为何认为‘资本输出国比逆差国更脆弱’这一反直觉结论。
- 书中部分观点可能挑战读者的既有认知，尤其是关于中国经济模式的评价。作者立场鲜明，批评中国及日本等国的政策扭曲。读者应保持批判性思维，区分作者的规范性建议与实证分析。同时，需注意本书出版于2013年，部分预测（如欧元区解体）未完全应验，阅读时应结合当前最新经济数据，关注其分析框架而非具体预测结果。
- 本书内容重复度较高，核心观点在多处反复强调，且缺乏严谨的实证数据支持，更多是逻辑推演。读者可采用跳读方式，重点关注第一章关于贸易失衡本质的论述，以及后续章节中关于政策后果的分析。不必逐字阅读，以免陷入冗长的道德说教。建议结合其他关于中国经济结构转型的权威报告进行对比阅读，以获得更全面客观的认识。
- 读者普遍认为本书提供了极具启发性的分析框架，彻底澄清了关于贸易失衡的常见误解。尽管部分读者批评其逻辑推导过于简化、缺乏实证支持，甚至认为其结论荒谬，但多数人承认其核心观点——即贸易失衡源于国内储蓄消费扭曲——具有深刻的洞察力。这种视角有助于理解全球金融危机的根源，以及为何单纯的外交施压无法解决经济问题。
- 关于中国经济的讨论，读者共识是本书揭示了增长模式不可持续的真相。许多读者认同作者关于‘资本便宜、劳动力被剥削’的分析，认为这解释了为何中国需要转向内需驱动。然而，也有读者指出作者对中国政策后果的预测过于悲观，且忽视了中国政府在调整过程中的努力。总体而言，读者认为本书在揭示结构性问题上具有价值，但在解决方案上缺乏可行性。
- 读者普遍反映本书写作风格存在争议，部分人认为其逻辑清晰、观点犀利，是理解全球经济的重要读物；另一部分人则批评其内容重复、论证不严谨，甚至带有意识形态偏见。尽管如此，多数读者承认作者迈克尔·佩蒂斯作为资深中国经济学家的权威性，其基于会计恒等式的分析方法为理解复杂的国际经济关系提供了有力的工具，尽管具体结论需审慎对待。
本导读基于书籍简介、目录、原文摘录、短评和书评生成，不等同于全文精读。
- "Asian countries have followed the growth model establised in the 1960s and 1970s by Japan, and this growth model includes crucially these three conditions: 1. Systematically undervalued currencies, in which the central bank intervenes in the currency to reduce its exchange value. (This transfer the "
- "These growth strategies engineered by Beijing forced households to subsidize investment and production, thus generating rapid economic and emplyment growth at the expense of household income growth."
- "From 1990 to 2002, household income ranged from 64% of GDP to 72% of GDP. It peaked in 1992, before a tremendous bout of inflation in 1993 and 1994 brought it down, and then began a slow, erratic decent to 66% in 2002, after which time it plunged to under 50% of GDP, if the numbers can believed (mos"
- "The difference between posted GDP growth rates and real increases in wealth shows up as excess debt. Eventually the imbalances this misallocation creates have to be resolved, and the wealth destruction has to be rcognized as debt levels are paid down. The petrodollars were recycled in massive amount"
- "Any distortion in one country's position that affects its international trade and capital position must be reflected in an equal and opposite distortion elsewhere. The global balanes of the payments will always balanace, one way or the other. Higher savings in one country must be met either with hig"
- "There are for the most part threee conditions under which net foreign capital inflows improve lont-term growth prospects for the recipient country: 1. When a country has high levels of potntially productive investment but domestic savings are insufficient to satisfy domestic demand, the country bene"
- "I argued in my own testimony that China had indeed boosted creditfuueled demand with its fiscal responese to the crisis, but because most of the resulting credit expansion had gone into investment, and not intoconsumption, China's contribution to global demand over the medium term was minimal and pe"
- "As the world rebalances, China must rebalance just as dramatically and perhaps even more so."
显示全部
Microeconomic Foundations II
That Tyrant, Persuasion
The Two Greatest Ideas
The Princeton Guide to Historical Research
The Handbook of China's Financial System
Leaving Academia: A Practical Guide