书籍介绍

这不是一本让人读起来轻松的书，却是一本让人读完对概率统计产生真正理解的书。它的独特之处在于 classical 与 Bayesian 两大流派并置呈现：读者会清晰看到，同一个问题在频率学派与贝叶斯框架下如何给出截然不同的解释——比如把未知参数当作随机变量处理时，先验分布的

AI导读

核心看点

平衡经典与贝叶斯方法，涵盖模拟技术
哈佛、MIT等名校教材，内容全面经典
大量真实数据案例，习题难度适中具代表性

读者共识

编写思路清晰，适合随时翻阅复习知识点
例子极多且反复使用，有助于深入理解概念
部分章节略显啰嗦，中文译本常有删减遗憾

精彩摘录

"we will use set theory for the mathematical model of events.outcomes of an experiment are elements of some sample space S,and each event is a subset of S.two events both occur if the outcome is in the intersection of two sets.at least one of a collection of events occurs if the outcome is the union "
"a box contains 100 balls,of which r are red.suppose that the balls are drawn from the box one at a time,at random,without replacement.determine(a) the probability that the first ball drawn will be red;(b)the probability that the 50th ball drawn will be red;(c)the prbability that the last ball drawn "
"9.if n people are seated in a random manner in a row containing 2n seats,what is the probability that no people will occupy adjacent seats?"
"Let Pn be the proportion of patients who don’t relapse out of the first n. It can be shown that the probability is 1 that Pn converges to something as n → ∞. That something can be thought of as P , which we have been calling the proportion of successes in a very large population. In this sense, P is"
"Suppose that the number of potential patients is enough larger than any sam- ple that we will see to make the approximation in Theorem 5.3.4 applicable. Then P is just the proportion of successes among the large population of potential pa- tients. Conditional on P = p, the number of successes in a s"
"The interesting probabilistic properties of δ can be summarized by computing, for each value of θ∈Ω, either the probability π(θ|δ) that the test δ will reject H₀...."