Inadequate Equilibria

Eliezer Yudkowsky

出版时间

2017-11-15

ISBN

9781939311184

评分

★★★★★
书籍介绍

When should you think that you may be able to do something unusually well? Whether you're trying to outperform in science, or in business, or just in finding good deals shopping on eBay, it's important that you have a sober understanding of your relative competencies. The story only ends there, however, if you're fortunate enough to live in an adequate civilization. Eliezer Yudkowsky's Inadequate Equilibria is a sharp and lively guidebook for anyone questioning when and how they can know better, and do better, than the status quo. Freely mixing debates on the foundations of rational decision-making with tips for everyday life, Yudkowsky explores the central question of when we can (and can't) expect to spot systemic inefficiencies, and exploit them.

Eliezer Yudkowsky is a decision theorist and computer scientist at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute in Berkeley, California who is known for his work in technological forecasting. His publications include the Cambridge Handbook of Artificial Intelligence chapter “The Ethics of Artificial Intelligence,” co-authored with Nick Bostrom. Yudkowsky’s writings have helped s...

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作者简介
Eliezer Yudkowsky is a decision theorist and computer scientist at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute in Berkeley, California who is known for his work in technological forecasting. His publications include the Cambridge Handbook of Artificial Intelligence chapter “The Ethics of Artificial Intelligence,” co-authored with Nick Bostrom. Yudkowsky’s writings have helped spark a number of ongoing academic and public debates about the long-term impact of AI, and he has written a number of popular introductions to topics in cognitive science and formal epistemology, such as “Rationality: From AI to Zombies” and “Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality.”
用户评论
关于什么情况下有可能跑赢市场/专家/主流看法的独立思考。长评区有两篇概括得还行,提到了“双因素系统中的信号”,不过我可能会更强调概括“没有 FDA 之类官僚机构的(过度)监管或以智力/美德等信号为圭臬的同行社区作为否决点,决策者能单方面行动并接受真实世界反馈,成功即可获利”这一整套逻辑。然而个人猜测这个模型或许也还是更强于事后解释而非事前预测,例如对日本货币政策的讨论在六七年后的今天看来似乎有点过于自信。中间向外星人解释学术界、政策制定者、媒体和公众等各方所面临的激励和信息约束结合起来如何扭曲医疗体系的虚拟对话很精彩;不过也确如一些评论所说,后面 1/3 到一半的部分有点垮,可以跳过。
两因素市场 低垂的果实 跟命运和时代博弈的时机和支点 类学业信号和吹捧文化 面对不确定的市场系统整体拿一个主意
只有不充分均衡的地方,才能获利,有效市场不能获利。
前半本非常好,充满了Yudkowsky式天才;后半本质量突然变差,结论也有点不知所云。和我阅读HPMOR的感受是差不多的。
只有当局势不明朗,没有人告诉你该怎么办,错误的判断会导致不良后果的时候,你因为有知识而敢于拿一个主意,这才算是真有知识。
万维钢精英日课2解读: 这本书讲了一个关键概念,叫“两因素系统”。这种系统非常稳定,但可能是不充分的均衡,会留下低垂的果实,给我们提供机会
不充分均衡 只有当局势不明朗,没有人告诉你该怎么办,错误的判断会导致不良后果的时候,你因为有知识而敢于拿一个主意,这才算是真有知识。
本以为会是比较惊艳的书,结果比预想的差太多,只需要读第三部分Moloch's Toolbox即可,后面的内容简直是在浪费时间,简直有Malcolm Gladwell的影子了.
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