Time Series Analysis and Its Applications

Robert H. Shumway

出版社

Springer

出版时间

2010-11-01

ISBN

9781441978646

评分

★★★★★
书籍介绍

Time Series Analysis and Its Applications presents a balanced and comprehensive treatment of both time and frequency domain methods with accompanying theory. Numerous examples using non-trivial data illustrate solutions to problems such as evaluating pain perception experiments using magnetic resonance imaging or monitoring a nuclear test ban treaty. The book is designed to be useful as a text for graduate level students in the physical, biological and social sciences and as a graduate level text in statistics. Some parts may also serve as an undergraduate introductory course. Theory and methodology are separated to allow presentations on different levels. Material from the earlier 1988 Prentice-Hall text Applied Statistical Time Series Analysis has been updated by adding modern developments involving categorical time sries analysis and the spectral envelope, multivariate spectral methods, long memory series, nonlinear models, longitudinal data analysis, resampling techniques, ARCH models, stochastic volatility, wavelets and Monte Carlo Markov chain integration methods. These add to a classical coverage of time series regression, univariate and multivariate ARIMA models, spectral analysis and state-space models. The book is complemented by ofering accessibility, via the World Wide Web, to the data and an exploratory time series analysis program ASTSA for Windows that can be downloaded as Freeware. Robert H. Shumway is Professor of Statistics at the University of California, Davis. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association and a member of the Inernational Statistical Institute. He won the 1986 American Statistical Association Award for Outstanding Statistical Application and the 1992 Communicable Diseases Center Statistics Award; both awards were for joint papers on time series applications. He is the author of a previous 1988 Prentice-Hall text on applied time series analysis and is currenlty a Departmental Editor for the Journal of Forecasting. David S. Stoffer is Professor of Statistics at the University of Pittsburgh. He has made seminal contributions to the analysis of categorical time series and won the 1989 American Statistical Association Award for Outstanding Statistical Application in a joint paper analyzing categorical time series arising in infant sleep-state cycling. He is currently an Associate Editor of the Journal of Forecasting and has served as an Associate Editor for the Journal fo the American Statistical Association. --This text refers to an alternate Hardcover edition.

AI导读
核心看点
  • 本书系统讲解时间序列分析的时域与频域方法,涵盖ARIMA模型、谱分析及状态空间模型等核心内容。书中强调理论推导与R语言实战的结合,提供大量非平凡数据的真实案例,如核试验监测等,帮助读者理解复杂统计建模过程。
  • 作者明确区分理论与方法论,旨在为物理、生物及社会科学领域的研究生提供严谨的统计工具。内容更新及时,包含GARCH、长记忆过程等现代发展,但部分章节如参数估计部分逻辑混乱,需结合其他资料辅助理解。
  • 书中深入探讨时间序列数据的依赖性特征,指出常规独立同分布假设在时序数据中的失效,并详细讲解自相关、偏自相关及回归分析在时序语境下的修正与应用,为处理具有时间相关性的数据提供系统解决方案。
适合谁读
  • 适合统计学、数学及相关理工科专业的研究生,作为时间序列分析的高级教材使用。读者需具备扎实的数理统计基础,能够接受严格的数学推导和复杂的公式证明,旨在掌握时间序列建模的深层原理。
  • 适合需要进行复杂数据分析的研究人员或数据科学家,特别是那些需要处理具有时间依赖性数据的专业人士。书中提供的R代码示例有助于将理论转化为实际应用,但要求读者具备编程能力和较强的数学功底。
  • 不适合数学基础薄弱或仅寻求快速应用技巧的初学者。读者反馈指出书中公式繁多、推导晦涩,且部分章节逻辑不清,对于希望快速上手或仅了解表面概念的用户来说,阅读体验极差,建议寻找更浅显的入门读物。
读前提醒
  • 阅读前需确认自身数学基础,特别是泛函分析和线性代数知识。书中后半部分难度陡增,涉及大量复杂证明,若感到吃力属正常现象。建议不要死磕所有推导,重点理解模型原理和R代码实现,避免陷入数学细节泥潭。
  • 书中存在大量重复性叙述和车轱辘话,严重拖慢阅读进度。建议跳过冗余文字,直接关注核心公式、算法逻辑及代码示例。对于参数估计等混乱章节,可参考其他权威教材如《Analysis of Financial Time Series》进行补充。
  • 严禁将本书作为时间序列分析的入门首选。读者共识强烈指出其数学门槛极高,入门难度极大。若仅为了解基本概念或应用,请选择Tsay等更友好的教材。本书仅适合在具备坚实基础后,作为深入研究的参考书或特定章节查阅。
读者共识
  • 读者普遍认为本书数学推导极其艰深,公式密集,阅读体验痛苦,甚至有人因作者名谐音而戏称其难读。尽管框架严谨,但因其极高的门槛和冗长的叙述,被广泛认为不适合初学者,也不适合作为快速参考书使用。
  • 尽管难度极大,但部分读者认可其在ARIMA等经典模型介绍上的系统性,以及提供的R语言代码示例的价值。然而,这种认可建立在读者已具备极强数学背景的前提下,普通读者难以从中获益,反而容易因挫败感而放弃。
  • 多数读者反馈书中存在逻辑混乱、废话连篇的问题,特别是参数估计部分。虽然内容全面且包含现代发展,但其编写方式导致学习效率低下。强烈建议读者根据自身数学能力谨慎选择,切勿盲目跟风,以免浪费时间和精力。

本导读基于书籍简介、目录、原文摘录、短评和书评生成,不等同于全文精读。

精彩摘录
  • "which is the correlation between $x_t$ and $x_s$ with the linear effect of everything in the middle removed"
  • "通过对不同时间点观察到的实验数据的分析,我们会在统计建模和推断过程中发现一些新的、独特的问题。常规的统计方法假设相邻观察值是独立同分布的,但是在相邻时间点的采样往往明显的存在相关性,这也严重限制了许多常规统计方法的使用。回答这些与时间相关的数学和统计问题时所用的系统方法通常称为时间序列分析。"
  • "在第4章中,我们将使用谱分析技术来检测有规律的或周期性的信号"
目录
Contents
1 Characteristics of Time Series 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 The Nature of Time Series Data 3
1.3 Time Series Statistical Models 11

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用户评论
只看了前面基础几章
STAT 429
我觉得这辈子都不会再看这本书了
也算读过(呗)
我有一个同学因为太不喜欢这门课了。。。一直以为这书的作者叫Shitler。。。哈哈听起来像什么呢,crappy Hitler XD
@2021-01-05 20:32:37
令人头秃 立flag:一定会做题的
今天整理文件忽然看到这本书的PDF,之前学Macroeconometric主要参考的就是这本和Hamilton的那本,不过个人更喜欢后者,只是当时因为Hamilton的那本版本太老又没有R的代码演示才看的这本,不过这本框架很棒,循序渐进,最后几章难度跨越有点大。打四星是因为这是我唯一只得了A的课。
时间序列的经典实用课本,上手快,有许多实用例子;理论的部分写的比较清楚,内容cover也比较全面。
补标记。个人感觉废话太多了,不够精炼。
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